Fano and Amhara forces have encircled Abdurafi, a crucial border town between Sudan and Ethiopia, amid escalating violence that continues to threaten the stability of the Horn of Africa. Reports indicate that Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) units have fled into Sudan as intense fighting rages on in the region.
The situation in Abdurafi is becoming increasingly dire, as Fano and Amhara militias have effectively surrounded the town, cutting off key supply routes and tightening their grip on the border. Abdurafi has long been a strategic location due to its proximity to both Sudan and Ethiopia, making it a critical flashpoint in the ongoing conflict.
Ethiopian forces, already stretched thin, have reportedly been forced to retreat across the border into Sudan, underscoring the vulnerability of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime. This retreat highlights the growing momentum of the opposition forces in the region and the weakening control of the Ethiopian government.
Fighting Near the Capital: OLA and Fano Assault Dera
Meanwhile, the situation near Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, is rapidly deteriorating. Heavy clashes between Ethiopian government forces and opposition groups have erupted, with the Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) launching a coordinated assault on Dera, a town located just 144 kilometers from Addis Ababa.
The offensive in Dera is particularly concerning, as it marks the closest opposition forces have come to the Ethiopian capital in years. As Fano and OLA forces intensify their assault, the stability of the capital – and by extension, the entire regime – is being tested.
Reports from the ground suggest that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is on the brink of collapse, with the ENDF struggling to hold key positions. The worsening security situation and the advance of opposition forces have created a sense of urgency within government circles, as the possibility of a complete military and political collapse looms large.
A Nation on the Edge
The current military crisis in Ethiopia reflects the deepening fractures within the country, as multiple opposition groups, including Fano and OLA, intensify their efforts to challenge the government. What was once a domestic conflict has now evolved into a full-scale war that threatens the very survival of the Ethiopian state.
If the government is unable to regain control and stabilise the situation, Ethiopia could face the collapse of its political institutions, leading to wider regional instability with potentially devastating consequences.
